Nature Climate Change, Published online: 12 May 2025; doi:10.1038/s41558-025-02327-9
The authors assess the risk of overshoot beyond 1.5 °C warming, using three scenarios with minimal overshoot, brief overshoot and sustained overshoot. They show a risk of long-term Amazon dieback, which begins as early as 1.3 °C warming but is largely mitigated by reducing temperature below 1.5 °C.