{"id":1729,"date":"2023-11-03T08:51:03","date_gmt":"2023-11-03T08:51:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.eurosolarnl.nl\/?p=1729"},"modified":"2023-11-07T12:26:51","modified_gmt":"2023-11-07T12:26:51","slug":"co2-keeps-rising-despite-rising-co2-offset-market","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.eurosolarnl.nl\/nl\/2023\/11\/03\/co2-keeps-rising-despite-rising-co2-offset-market\/","title":{"rendered":"CO2 keeps rising despite 30 years of market policy solutions – Part 1"},"content":{"rendered":"\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\"CO2\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t\t

CO2 keeps rising \ndespite 30 years of global action !<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t\t

Part 1 - Why are carbon markets the main tool for international climate action?<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t

The most recent IPCC summary report (2023) says that current policies will bring us to a 3.2\u00b0 C rise in global average temperature by 2100[1]<\/a>. \u201cWe are on a highway to climate hell with our foot still on the accelerator\u201d, according to UN chief, Antonio Guterres.[2]<\/a>\u00a0 Carbon trading, as framed in the Kyoto Protocol, remains the centerpiece of global climate policy.\u00a0 Part 1 of this blog tells a bit about how carbon trading came about, part 2 explains the \u2018compliance market\u2019, and part 3 sheds light on the \u2018voluntary carbon market\u2019.<\/p>

<\/a><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

\n\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t\t

Part 1- Market framing of climate action<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t

In the 1980\u2019s, the science on the global warming effect of greenhouse gases was becoming increasingly clear.\u00a0 The Advisory Group on Greenhouse Gases was set up in 1986 by the International Council of Scientific Unions, the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).\u00a0 In response to the US Environmental Protection Agency\u2019s (EPA) call for an international restriction of greenhouse gases, the Reagan Administration steered the creation in 1988 of the IPCC, an intergovernmental organization in which the influence of scientists is tempered by governmental interests.[3]<\/a>\u00a0 In 1992, 154 nations signed the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) treaty confirming the intention to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and for ongoing scientific research, regular meetings, negotiations and future policy agreements.[4]<\/a>\u00a0 The IPCC has issued reports since 1990 to the present which have increasingly emphasized the urgent need for action this decade (2020 \u2013 2030).[5]<\/a><\/p>

<\/a><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

\n\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t\t

Two highly questionable premises<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t

The world\u2019s response to climate change was conceived at the international UNFCCC climate conferences.\u00a0 Hermann Scheer, the late German politician and founder of the European Association for Renewable Energy, EUROSOLAR, observed that \u2018two highly questionable premises\u2019 were the basis for the negotiations.[6] The first premise is that every nation should have similar obligations because greenhouse gas emissions are a global problem.\u00a0 What has become clear over the last 20 years is the opposite:\u00a0 that greenhouse gas emissions need to be cleaned up where they are emitted, and every nation needs a tailored approach, in line with its responsibilities and capabilities. The idea that pollution is global has permitted the misdirection of action on emissions from the pollution emitted in the global north to focus on various projects in the forests of the global south.<\/p>

The second premise is that climate protection measures are an economic burden in which burden sharing must be achieved by consensus.[6]<\/a> \u00a0To the contrary, climate protection measures can stimulate the economy, and experimentation by pioneers needs to be encouraged to find the best solutions.\u00a0 Consensus brings the whole effort down to the lowest common denominator (see conceptual trap of consensus below).\u00a0 The consequences of these two premises will be discussed below.<\/p>

<\/a><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

\n\t\t\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t\t

First tiny step - Kyoto<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t

The first implementation of measures under the UNFCCC was the Kyoto Protocol which was signed in 1997 and ran from 2005 to 2020.\u00a0 It was an agreement of 38 industrialized countries to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 2012 to a level 5.2 per cent lower than those of 1990.[7]<\/a>\u00a0 Even in 1997, climate scientists knew that the Kyoto target was too small to slow the accumulation of greenhouse gases even temporarily.[8]<\/a>\u00a0<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

\n\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t\t

Kyoto avoidance option <\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t

Nevertheless, the United States introduced into the Kyoto negotiations a proposal that served to undermine even this weak target.\u00a0 The idea was to allow an industrialized treaty participant the option of not making reductions<\/strong>, by allowing them to contract emissions reductions more cheaply on a global market.\u00a0 This global market for carbon offsets (see Part 3) was institutionalized in the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM)\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

\n\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\"Who\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t
Figure 1. Responsibility for climate change: historical emissions of greenhouse gases. Source: Center for Global Development.<\/figcaption>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/figure>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t

\u00a0and the Joint Implementation (JI) framework in the Kyoto Protocol, and carries through to today, most recently in Article 6 of the Paris Agreement.<\/p>

The justification for such a global market relies on the rationale that air pollution is global and can therefore be \u2018cleaned up\u2019 anywhere. \u00a0This misses the fact that it is not currently possible to reduce emissions at scale by pulling them out of the air.\u00a0 To reach our goals, the emissions directly from the smokestacks in industrialized countries must be reduced. \u00a0That is why this \u2018global pollution\u2019 rationale for the market is mistaken. Where there is smoke there is fire, but reducing some of the smoke does not extinguish the fire. \u00a0<\/p>

<\/a><\/p>

<\/a><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

\n\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t\t

What is the goal?<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t

The Paris Agreement goals are to reduce emissions by 45% by 2030 and by 95% in 2050.[9]<\/a> Once emitted, greenhouse gases affect the entire atmosphere.\u00a0 Nevertheless, it is known where and by whom greenhouse gases are emitted.\u00a0 Developed countries are responsible for about 80% of the historical emissions between 1850-2011.[10]<\/a> \u00a0(Figure 1) It is also known that only 108 companies are responsible for 70% of the emissions between 1820 to 2018.[11]<\/a> ( Figure 2) \u00a0In the period, 1965-2018, when fossil fuel companies knew the consequences of their emissions, 35% of all fossil fuel and cement emissions were caused by only 20 companies, with Chevron, BP, Exxon and Shell at the top of the list.[10]\u00a0 Without reducing the emissions of these \u2018carbon majors\u2019, there can be no\u00a0<\/p>

<\/a><\/p>

<\/a><\/p>

<\/a><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

\n\t\t\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t

way to achieve the needed decrease in emissions. The global market system is an avoidance mechanism, one that\u00a0enables major polluters to easily obtain credits to continue to pollute. Furthermore, these credits often do not guarantee actual emission reductions are taking place.[7] (see Part 3)<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

\n\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\"Figure\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t
Figure 2. Left: Global emissions of carbon dioxide for fossil fuel use and cement production from 1820 to 2018 (black) and the emissions attributed to 108 major carbon producers (red). Right: Carbon majors and \u2018unattributed\u2019 1751-2018. Source: Carbon Accountability Institute<\/figcaption>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/figure>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t\t

Consensus trap<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t

Hermann Scheer writes that \u2018the Kyoto Protocol was only agreed because it freed most countries (including China and India) from any obligation to act.\u2019 \u00a0He observes that \u2018it is impossible to achieve a truly substantial agreement involving equal<\/em> and concurrent<\/em> obligations, because the circumstances [of the world\u2019s countries] are too unequal.\u2019[4]\u00a0 Instead, the need for consensus squashes ambition and forces the negotiations to aim for the lowest common denominator.\u00a0 Individual nations are discouraged from taking the initiative and addressing the climate with \u2018pioneering actions\u2019. Scheer cites a 2010 report by the German Scientific Committee of the German Federal Ministry that claims that countries investing in pioneering initiatives are punished because they pay for solutions that enable other countries to get a \u2018free ride\u2019.[4]\u00a0 Discouraging national action while insisting on consensus from the diversity of countries creates a hopeless paralysis in global climate policy, which was already visible in 2010.[4]<\/p>

<\/a><\/p>

<\/a><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

\n\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t\t

Market framing delays and avoids action<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t

The market framing of the emissions mitigation action has misdirected action away from the carbon majors. Furthermore, by insisting on consensus and equal effort by all countries, pioneering actions have been discouraged. \u00a0In these ways, the Kyoto framing of international climate action has blocked alternatives.\u00a0 In Parts 2 and 3, the two types of market solutions are explained with a discussion of their effectiveness to date.<\/p>

<\/a><\/p>

<\/a><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t

\n\t\t\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t

[1]<\/a> The IPCC just published its summary of 5 years of reports \u2013 here\u2019s what you need to know – Climate Champions (unfccc.int)<\/a><\/p>

[2]<\/a> https:\/\/www.aljazeera.com\/news\/2022\/11\/7\/world-on-highway-to-climate-hell-un-chief-guterres-tells-cop27#:~:text=%E2%80%9CWe%20are%20on%20a%20highway%20to%20climate%20hell,and%20Development%20%28OECD%29%20hitting%20that%20mark%20by%202030<\/a>.<\/p>

[3]<\/a> Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change – Wikipedia<\/a><\/p>

[4]<\/a> United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change – Wikipedia<\/a><\/p>

[5]<\/a> NRDC, (2023, April 14), IPCC Climate Change Reports: Why They Matter to Everyone on the Planet, https:\/\/www.nrdc.org\/stories\/ipcc-climate-change-reports-why-they-matter-everyone-planet#sec-latest<\/a><\/p>

[6]<\/a> Hermann Scheer, The Energy Imperative<\/u>, Earthscan, 2012, translated from Der Energethische Imperativ<\/u>, Verlag Antje Kunstmann, 2010<\/p>

[7]<\/a> Gilbertson, T. and Reyes, O., Carbon Trading: How it works and why it fails, 2009,untitled (daghammarskjold.se)<\/a><\/p>

[8]<\/a> Malakoff, D. (1997). CLIMATE CHANGE: Thirty Kyotos Needed to Control Warming. Science, 278(5346), 2048\u20132048. doi:10.1126\/science.278.5346.2048<\/p>

[9]<\/a> United Nations Climate Action, \u00a0Net Zero Coalition | United Nations<\/a><\/p>

[10]<\/a> Center for Global Development, (2023) Developed Countries Are Responsible for 79 Percent of Historical Carbon Emissions, Developed Countries Are Responsible for 79 Percent of Historical Carbon Emissions | Center For Global Development | Ideas to Action (cgdev.org)<\/a><\/p>

[11] <\/a>Climate Accountability Institute, (2020, December 9), Update of Carbon Majors 1965-2018, https:\/\/climateaccountability.org\/pdf\/CAI%20PressRelease%20Dec20.pdf<\/a><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Carbon markets are the main international climate action policy. Despite huge investments over decades CO2 keeps rising. How did this happen?<\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":1385,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_oct_exclude_from_cache":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[53,22,54],"tags":[35,34],"class_list":["post-1729","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-carbon-markets","category-energy-transition-big-picture","category-international-climate-action","tag-energietransitiebeleid","tag-energy-transition-policy"],"rttpg_featured_image_url":{"full":["https:\/\/www.eurosolarnl.nl\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/CO2-and-climate-conferences.jpg",602,635,false],"landscape":["https:\/\/www.eurosolarnl.nl\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/CO2-and-climate-conferences.jpg",602,635,false],"portraits":["https:\/\/www.eurosolarnl.nl\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/CO2-and-climate-conferences.jpg",602,635,false],"thumbnail":["https:\/\/www.eurosolarnl.nl\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/CO2-and-climate-conferences-150x150.jpg",150,150,true],"medium":["https:\/\/www.eurosolarnl.nl\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/CO2-and-climate-conferences-500x527.jpg",500,527,true],"large":["https:\/\/www.eurosolarnl.nl\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/CO2-and-climate-conferences.jpg",602,635,false],"1536x1536":["https:\/\/www.eurosolarnl.nl\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/CO2-and-climate-conferences.jpg",602,635,false],"2048x2048":["https:\/\/www.eurosolarnl.nl\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/CO2-and-climate-conferences.jpg",602,635,false],"trp-custom-language-flag":["https:\/\/www.eurosolarnl.nl\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/CO2-and-climate-conferences-11x12.jpg",11,12,true]},"rttpg_author":{"display_name":"Admin","author_link":"https:\/\/www.eurosolarnl.nl\/nl\/author\/admin\/"},"rttpg_comment":0,"rttpg_category":"carbon markets<\/a> Energy Transition - big picture<\/a> international climate action<\/a>","rttpg_excerpt":"Carbon markets are the main international climate action policy. Despite huge investments over decades CO2 keeps rising. How did this happen?","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.eurosolarnl.nl\/nl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1729","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.eurosolarnl.nl\/nl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.eurosolarnl.nl\/nl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.eurosolarnl.nl\/nl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.eurosolarnl.nl\/nl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1729"}],"version-history":[{"count":75,"href":"https:\/\/www.eurosolarnl.nl\/nl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1729\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1957,"href":"https:\/\/www.eurosolarnl.nl\/nl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1729\/revisions\/1957"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.eurosolarnl.nl\/nl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1385"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.eurosolarnl.nl\/nl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1729"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.eurosolarnl.nl\/nl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1729"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.eurosolarnl.nl\/nl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1729"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}